The cotton gin is quite like AI when it comes to the impact on employment

A cotton gin — short for “cotton engine” — is a machine that quickly and easily separates the fibers from the cotton plant flower from their seeds. Separating them manually was brutal, time-consuming work.

Handheld roller gins were invented in what is now India around AD 500, improved in India in the 1500s, and then further improved in the United States by Eli Whitney in 1793 and patented a year later. It was Whitney’s cotton gin that revolutionized the American cotton industry, in some ways for the better but in many ways for the worse. Although slavery existed in the U.S. prior to the first settlements by Europeans, it was the production of tobacco and especially cotton that led to the massive increase in slaves, particularly from Africa, in the 18th and 19th centuries and it was that slavery that led to the U.S. Civil War.

Today, over two centuries later, we find ourselves at the precipice of another technological revolution: artificial intelligence (AI). The parallels between these two technological innovations are striking. They’ve both had significant and often unforeseen impacts on labor demands.

Prior to its invention, cotton processing was a labor-intensive task, often taking an entire day to clean a single pound of cotton. The cotton gin, however, could accomplish this same task in a fraction of the time, greatly increasing cotton production efficiency. Why? The common assumption would be that such a labor-saving device would reduce the demand for human workers. What actually happened, however, was that the cotton gin led to an increase in the need for labor because its remarkable efficiency resulted in a massive expansion of the cotton industry, as planters saw greater potential profit in growing cotton. This expansion of cotton farming led to a higher demand for workers to plant, grow, and pick cotton, leading to a stark increase in the enslaved population.

AI Technology: The Modern Paradox

Is AI the 21st-century cotton gin? Most agree that AI is a technological advancement that promises to automate numerous tasks across various sectors. AI systems have been developed that can drive cars, diagnose illnesses, conduct customer service, write articles, and much more.

Similar to the cotton gin, one might expect that AI, with its automation capabilities, would decrease the demand for human labor. However, just as the cotton gin inadvertently increased labor demand, AI may well do the same. A few examples:

First, AI is creating entirely new industries and jobs that didn’t exist before. These range from AI ethics officers, who ensure AI systems are used responsibly, to AI trainers, who “teach” AI systems to perform tasks.

Second, the integration of AI into existing industries often requires a human touch. While AI can automate many tasks, there’s still a demand for humans to oversee these systems, provide input where AI falls short, and perform tasks that require a level of emotional intelligence or creativity that AI cannot yet replicate.

Third, much like the cotton gin expanded the cotton industry, AI could stimulate growth in existing industries. Businesses that can leverage AI effectively will have a competitive edge, potentially leading to industry expansion and increased demand for both AI-specialized roles and traditional roles within these growing industries.

Both the cotton gin and AI illustrate a fascinating paradox: labor-saving tech often leads to an increase in labor demand. Another similarity seems likely: just as the cotton gin exacerbated the moral crisis of slavery in the 19th-century United States, the rise of AI could potentially increase social and economic inequality if not managed with foresight and responsibility. Will the profits from AI be privatized by the few and the social and economic inequality be socialized to the many?

As we embrace the AI revolution, it’s crucial to remember that the true impact of technology lies not just in the hardware or code, but in how we as a society choose to implement and adapt to it. If we can learn from the past, we have the opportunity to guide this technological progress in a way that truly benefits humanity.