When Will Overall Job Growth Begin? Watch Staffing for Early Signs

A sustained upturn in staffing industry employment would signal the end of the current recession and suggest that overall nonfarm employment would begin to grow about three months later, according to new research released recently by the American Staffing Association. Staffing industry employment has long been considered a popular indicator of current economic conditions and a precursor of overall employment trends. Recent research confirms this conventional wisdom, but adds important nuance.
Key Findings

• Staffing industry employment is a strong coincident economic indicator when the economy is emerging from a recession.
• Staffing industry employment is a leading indicator for nonfarm employment–by about three months when the economy is emerging from a recession.

Source: ASA

“Analysis shows that temporary help employment is a strong coincident economic indicator when the economy is emerging from a recession. This suggests that a sustained upturn in temporary help employment would signal the end of the current recession,” the report indicates. These conclusions were drawn from statistical analyses of 36 years of government data conducted by ASA and its corporate partner, the Inavero Institute for Service Research.
“This is the first time that an upswing in staffing jobs has been so closely linked with economic recovery,” says ASA vice president Steve Berchem, CSP, who directed the research project. Demand for temporary and contract employees in May remained virtually unchanged from that in April. While this does not constitute an upswing, we see a continued signal of stabilization in industry employment.
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Originally posted by Candice A