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How the Bureau of Labor Statistics Misleads Us

Toby Dayton of LinkUp and JobDigThere are a variety of statistics to measure the strength of the labor market. A number of job boards, including CollegeRecruiter.com, regularly publish the number of job postings running on their sites under the theory that the more postings, the more employers are hiring, and therefore the stronger the labor market. Other organizations such as ADP publish payroll statistics which reveal the number of people who are being paid under the theory that the more people who are being paid, the stronger the labor market.

Each of the methods are a mere proxy in that none is a direct measurement of the number of people working. Job postings just show how many positions are being advertised for by employers. Those employers can be hiring yet not advertising. As strange as that may sound to some, those of us in the job board industry understand all too well that in periods of economic recovery, employers who are hiring have less of a need to advertise their openings than they do in stronger economic periods because the number of people who are looking for work is greater during recovery periods so those employers are more likely to receive a high quantity and quality of resumes even without buying any advertising. Payroll numbers are a better measurement as they count the number of people being paid by employers, but they don't measure the huge and increasing number of self-employed nor do they measure those who are employed but not on payroll, which often happens when employers hire illegal immigrants.

The U.S. Department of Labor has its own measurement and it is probably the most widely quoted by the media. Essentially, they look at the percentage of people who are unemployed and actively looking for work. Currently, about 10 percent of the population falls into that definition, which is about double the number of unemployed that we had just a few years ago. Yet the federal government's statistic is also fundamentally flawed as it omits some very large groups that most would consider to be unemployed: those who have given up looking for a job, whose company has closed, and the under employed. A tip of the hat to Toby Dayton for spotting this great video that uses humor to explain the mess:

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