By Steven Rothberg

Since CollegeRecruiter.com went live in 1996, we've seen tremendous swings in the employment prospects of students and recent graduates. Early on, there was equilibrium: most job seekers were offered one or more positions that provided them with reasonable levels of income and experience. By the end of the 1990's, disequilibrium was the rule: most job seekers had their pick of positions which offered great experience and great pay. Today's graduates entered college during that era, so it is not surprising that many continue to have high expectations.

By the spring of 2001, approximately six months before the 9/11 attacks, we noticed a significant reduction in the hiring enthusiasm by employers. No longer were they willing to hire almost any student or graduate and pay them royally. Instead, they were starting to talk of hiring freezes and even layoffs. Graduates going to management consulting firms were being asked to defer their start dates. Then 9/11 hit during the peak of fall on-campus recruiting and many employers cancelled their college hiring efforts.

Thankfully, the pendulum is swinging the other way. Employers expect to hire 12.7 percent more new college graduates in 2003-04 than they hired in 2002-03, according to a new survey conducted by the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE). "It's been two years since we've seen employers project an increase in college hiring, so there is reason to be cautiously optimistic," says Marilyn Mackes, NACE executive director.

Approximately half (50.7 percent) of the employers responding to NACE's survey said they expect to hire more new college graduates this year (2003-04) than they did last year (2002-03); 28 percent plan to cut back, and 21.3 percent anticipate no change in hiring levels.

Service-sector employers are most optimistic about college hiring, projecting a 22.2 percent increase. Manufacturers are significantly more conservative about their hiring plans and expect to bring in just 3.4 percent more new college graduates in 2003-04 than they did in 2002-03.

By region, changes in college hiring plans are most significant in the Northeast, where employers plan to increase college hiring by 15.3 percent. Midwest employers expect to increase their hiring by 13.5 percent, and employers in the West nearly match that with a 13.3 percent increase projected. In the South, employers plan to hire 7.2 percent more new college graduates in 2003-04.

Among those who plan to bump up their hiring, company growth, increased demand for products and services, and attrition were often cited as reasons for the increase. However, employers who project further hiring cuts were most likely to cite continued poor demand for their goods/services as their reason for axing college hiring plans, one indication that the economic recovery is not universal.

For those students and recent graduates who are searching for a new job, the outlook is better, but not close to what it was four years ago. Just as the hiring frenzy in the late 1990's was atypical, so was the dismal job market of late 2001 through mid-2003. Job seekers need to be proactive and look upon the process of finding a job as a job. Not only do they need to work hard and spend many hours at it, but they need to do so efficiently and effectively.