Higher Home Prices Likely to Lead to Surge in Employees Quitting Jobs

John Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas

With the recent report on home prices showing the biggest year-over-year gain in more than six years, one employment authority predicts a surge in relocation by job-seeking homeowners in 2013, which could ultimately help to accelerate the decline in unemployment rates.

“One factor that has kept unemployment rates high has been the inability of underwater homeowners to relocate for employment opportunities.  With home prices bouncing back, even those who may now simply break even on a home sale might consider moving to a region where jobs are more plentiful.  This could spark a more rapid decline in the unemployment rate over the next year,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.  Continue Reading

Employment Report Blows Away Estimates; Aug & Sep Revised Upward Too

The consensus of economic forecasts for today’s payroll report was that in October the U.S. would have added about 125,000 jobs and that the unemployment would slightly increase from 7.8 to 7.9 percent due to an increase in the number of people in the labor force. The unemployment rate announced today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics was the same as forecast, but the total number of jobs created was almost 37 percent higher as 171,000 net, new jobs were created in October. Further bolstering the strength of the report was that BLS also announced that some 84,000 more net, new jobs were created in August and September than previously estimated.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade.

Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy had no discernible effect on the employment and unemployment data for October. Household survey data collection was completed before the storm, and establishment survey data collection rates were within normal ranges nationally and for the affected areas.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate (7.9 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (12.3 million) were essentially unchanged in October, following declines in September. Continue Reading

96% of Employers Hiring; 81% Advertising on Sites Like CollegeRecruiter.com

As the national unemployment rate continues to teeter at just over eight percent, turnover rates are beginning to inch up. The average total turnover rate reported for employers from 2011 was 15.2 percent, according to Compdata Surveys BenchmarkPro 2012 survey results. That’s up slightly from 14.4 percent reported a year ago. Voluntary turnover rates were reported at 9.8 percent, up from 9.1 percent reported last year.

“Voluntary turnover rates were trending downward for several years, but the numbers are beginning to edge up again,” said Amy Kaminski, director of marketing for Compdata Surveys. “This is likely because employees are beginning to feel more comfortable about re-entering the job market as the economy shows small signs of improvement.” Continue Reading

Of all workers laid off from 2009 to 2011, just 56.9% had jobs as of January 2012

Employers Increasingly Focused on Retention As Economy Recovers

Contrary to Media Reports, May Job Numbers Were Robust

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a few days ago. Employment increased in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade but declined in construction. Employment was little changed in most other major industries.

So overall, the growth in jobs was rather anemic as an increase of 69,000 jobs in a month is about half of what the country needs just to keep the same percentage of people employed because the number of people of working age increases by about 130,000 per month. But that’s just the high level view. When you really start looking at the numbers and turning off or out the talking heads on tv, the numbers actually look good (not great). The reason? The monthly increases in the number of people working are being greatly suppressed by layoffs in state and local government. Interesting how those who are advocating so strong for austerity in government are also the first to jump on the jobless numbers as proof that their policies are the way to economic bliss. But I digress. Continue Reading

Economic Indicators Indicate Job Market About to Boom

The economy still has a long, long way to go before we will recover all of the jobs lost during the recession but the past few months are enough to convince all but the most irrational skeptic that we’re moving in the correct direction. Slowly, but better.

But those who are excited about the economy adding a couple of hundred thousand jobs per month need to keep in mind that if we continue to add jobs at that rate then it will take a decade to make up all for all the jobs lost toward the end of George W. Bush’s presidency as well as at the beginning of Barack Obama’s as the job losses were so monumental (750,000 some months) and the nation’s population has grown since the recession started in 2007. Looking back at job growth in the 1980′s or latter part of the 1990′s, we see that job growth of 250,000 per month is relatively weak. To actually increase the number of jobs we have in real terms, we need to start seeing monthly net jobs increase by at least 300,000 and even 400,000. Unlikely? Hardly. Continue Reading

Inability of Unemployed to Relocate One of Biggest Obstacles to Economic Recovery

After rising to its highest level in nearly two years during the first half of 2011, the percentage of job seekers relocating for new positions dropped to a near record low to finish out the year. The latest data provides further evidence that one of the biggest obstacles to economic recovery could be the lack of mobility among the nation’s unemployed.

Over the last two quarters of 2011, an average of just 7.5 percent of job seekers finding employment relocated for their new positions. That is down nearly two points from an average relocation rate of 9.4 percent in the first two quarters of the year. It was slightly lower than the same period in 2010, when 7.7 percent of job seekers relocated for new positions. Continue Reading

Quarter of a Million Jobs Added in September and October

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 110,000 from September to October on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated advance in employment from August to September was revised up to 116,000 from the initially reported 91,000.

Today’s ADP National Employment Report suggests that the recent trend in private employment remains moderate, and probably is below a pace consistent with a stable unemployment rate. This rate of moderate job creation reflects the sluggish pace of GDP growth exhibited earlier this year. Continue Reading